Macro economics

Market analysis for September 14, 2017

On Wednesday, the stock indices showed a single neutral dynamics, and closed in the green zone with minimal change. The Dow Jones rose by 0.18% (22158.18), S&P 500 added 0.08% (2498.37), Nasdaq grew 0.09% (6460.19). European stocks have not shown a single dynamics and closed mixed. The German DAX rose by 0.23% (12553.57), British FTSE 100 fell by 0.28% (7379.70).

Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.

At 02:15 MSK a Speech by the deputy head of the RBA Debelle 
At 04:30 MSK the PMI Australia for August 
At 10:30 MSK the decision by Central Bank of Switzerland for the interest rate 
At 10:30 MSK SNB monetary policy Assessment 
At 14:00 MSK the decision for interest rate for UK in September 
At 14:00 MSK the minutes of the meeting of the committee on monetary policy of Great Britain 
At 15:30 MSK the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits USA
At 15:30 MSK Base the consumer price index, U.S. government
At 18:30 MSK the President of the Bundesbank Weidmann speaks

Yesterday markets slowly drifted in a direction found before in anticipation of today's publications of important macroeconomic indicators. Yesterday's data in Europe was not conducive to volatility increasing. The consumer price index of Germany was in line with forecasts. Employment in the European Union grew by 1.6%, which is slightly more than the expected 1.4%. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, which is slightly better than the forecast of 4.4%. In the UK the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 2.8 K, which is better than the expected growth of 0.6 K. Investors are waiting for the publication of the results of the meeting Bank of England and the decision for monetary policy, which can be a major driver for the UK market.

To the external background of European markets it was added a similar picture with the macro statistics of America. The producer price index for August showed an increase of 0.2%, which is slightly worse than the forecast of 0.3%. There were no other important news, and markets have grown slightly, continuing the trend from previous days in anticipation of data on inflation and unemployment. Constraining the growth factor was a new statement of DPRK in response to UN sanctions with promises to "double efforts" to combat the USA.

An outstanding event of yesterday was the presentation of the new iPhone models from Apple. The company introduced a smartphone dedicated to the decade of the line, and also there were updated gadgets, new watches and the console for the television. The presentation was more than successful, but despite this, capitalization of Apple has decreased by 1.21% due to the closure of speculative positions, as well as after the event it was became known that the new iPhone X will be on sale only in the next financial year.

Oil received support from the report of the International Energy Agency, according to which OPEC has reduced production in August, by 210 thousand barrels a day. Due to this, the quality of execution of the agreement OPEC+ was 82%, which is above 75% for July. Also it was increased forecast for the demand by 100 thousand barrels in 2017. This positive consumed the reaction to EIA data, according to which the growth in crude oil inventories for the week reached to 1.3%, 5.9 million barrels. As a result, prices of oil continued to rise and reached the resistance level of 49,40 for WTI.

 

Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.

 

December
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1

Interest rates

Country Rate Value
USA Federal Funds 0,25 %
Switzerland 3 Month LIBOR Range -0.75 %
United Kingdom Repo Rate 0,10 %
EU Refinancing Tender 0,00 %
Japan Overnight Call Rate -0,10 %
New Zealand Official Cash Rate 0,25 %
Australia Cash Rate 0,25 %
Canada Overnight Rate Target 0,25 %
All rates
This site uses cookies to store information on your computer. Some of these cookies are essential to make our site work and others help us to improve by giving us some insight info how the site is being used.