Macro economics

Market analysis for October 7, 2016

Yesterday dynamics in the US stock markets was almost absent, the indices closed in different directions with a small deviation from the previous day's close. Dow Jones fell by 0.07% (18268.50), S & P 500 grew by 0.05% (2160.77), The Nasdaq fell by 0.17% (5306.85).

For today, scheduled a publication of important statistics that will affect the decisions of investors during the trades.

At 11:30 Moscow time, in the UK will be published a data on changes in production volume in manufacturing in August, it is expected to be 0.5%.

At 15:30 Moscow time, scheduled the most anticipated publication of macroeconomic indicator in the United States, the change in the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls for September, according to forecasts it may reach 175K.

At 15:30 Moscow time in the US unemployment rate is published for September, it is expected that it will amount to 4.9%, as in the previous month.

At 15:30 MSK, employment change in Canada for September will be published, it is expected that the figure will reach 10,0K.

At 17:00 MSK, in Canada will be announced the index of business activity (PMI) from Ivey for September.

The main bright news yesterday was the refusal of Twitter buying from major potential candidates Google and Walt Disney. This caused a slump in the company's shares by more than 20%.

This news could have a lot of pressure on the indices, but the positive macro statistics on employment has supported buyer’s activity and did not give markets to roll down.

The number initial claims for unemployment benefits fell from 254 to 249K, while expected to grow to 257K.

Today, publication of data on employment will continue.

At 15.30 MSK, will be published the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls for September, according to forecasts it may reach 175K.

These data can greatly affect investor’s mood about the possibility of raising key rates by the Fed before the end of this year.

Positive data might affect the further strengthening of the dollar and consequently lead to increasing of sales of the raw materials and high-risk assets.

Awaiting for publication of this index, markets decrease the volatility, slowly preparing for new impulse and this can explain the absence of any dynamics, yesterday.

A brightest event of the trades was the strong drop down of the GBP/USD.

During the Asian trading session, early this morning, the British pound fell by 1.7% to a new low in more than 30 years of history, reaching a point of 1,20 GBPUSD.

The reason could be in a thin market and low liquidity of the Asian session, the market, which triggered stop loss orders, and, without buyers, collapsed the quotes. It happens because of a long slow decline of currency in anticipation of the promised exit of Britain from the European Union.

 

Sincerely, Global FX analysts team.

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Interest rates

Country Rate Value
USA Federal Funds 0,25 %
Switzerland 3 Month LIBOR Range -0.75 %
United Kingdom Repo Rate 0,10 %
EU Refinancing Tender 0,00 %
Japan Overnight Call Rate -0,10 %
New Zealand Official Cash Rate 0,25 %
Australia Cash Rate 0,25 %
Canada Overnight Rate Target 0,25 %
All rates
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