Tuesday the stock indices of the US stocks demonstrated a single positive trend and closed in green zone. The Dow Jones added 0.17% (20949.89), S&P 500 grew by 0.12% (2391.17), the Nasdaq increased by 0.06% (6095.37). European markets have shown a more active growth. The German DAX added 0.56% (12507.90), British FTSE 100 rose 0.64% (7250.05).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 01:45 MSK unemployment Change in New Zealand during the 1st quarter
At 10:55 MSK the change in the number of unemployed in Germany in April
At 11:30 MSK the Index of business activity in the construction sector in the UK in April
At 12:00 MSK Eurozone GDP for 1st quarter
At 15:15 MSK the unemployment rate in the non-agricultural sector of the USA from ADP in April
At 17:00 MSK the Index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM for April
At 17:00 MSK the Index of employment in the non-manufacturing sector (ISM) for April
At 17:30 MSK crude oil Inventories USA
At 21:00 MSK the FOMC Statement
At 21:00 MSK interest rate Decision of the Fed
Investors continue to consider events of the presidential race in France. The second round will take place at the end of this week, 7 May. Market participants are satisfied with the victory of centrist Emmanuel Macron, his opponent Marine Le Pen is representative of the far-right directions. Despite the fact that the Makron defeated in the first round with a significant margin, the second round is difficult to predict, and the results can be unexpected. In his recent speeches Makron expressed their dissatisfaction with the country's participation in the European Union. Marine Le Pen earlier said the same, and it repel part of voters. Befiore of elections it is likely that activity of investors will decrease and perhaps part of long positions will be closed.
Yesterday in Washington began a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The decision on the key rate will be published tonight at 21:00 MSK. As investors expect the rate will remain the same. The main will be the comments of the monetary authorities, which will give ground for expectations about the outcome of the June meeting. Investors also await the disclosure of the Fed's plans on the reduction of the portfolio of mortgage and treasury bonds. Despite the predictability of events, it is likely to increase in volatility of stock indices and currency exchange rates.
Quarterly reporting season continues in the US. Apple reported yesterday, after closing of market. The amount of profit per share was 2.10, which is above the expected of 2.02. Capitalization of ConocoPhillips fell 1.39% after reporting worse than expected. Pfizer slipped down by 1.92% by the same reason. MasterCard has achieved great success, adding to 1.95%, as the profit was above expectations.
Weekly data of crude oil inventories from the American petroleum Institute (API) published last night. Inventories fell down to 4,158 million barrels; it is more than analysts had expected 2,300 million barrels. Despite this, the cost of futures for the black gold is trading in the red, showing only a small correction up. Perhaps investors are waiting for confirmation from the US Department of energy, which will publish its rate today at 17:30 GMT.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.