On Friday stock indices has not demonstrated a single dynamics and closed in different directions when volatility was low. The Dow Jones declined by 0.11% (20896.61), S&P 500 dipped 0.15 percent (2390.90), Nasdaq grew 0.09% (6121.23). European markets showed strong growth in the single dynamics. The German DAX gained 0.47% (12770.41), British FTSE 100 rose 0.66% (7435.39).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 01:45 MSK retail sales in New Zealand for the first quarter
At 04:30 MSK Housing loans Australia for March
At 14:45 MSK the speech of the ECB Prata
At 15:30 MSK the PMI manufacturing of America Empire State in may
At 23:00 MSK net long-term securities in the United States TIC for March
According to the macroeconomic data published in Europe on Friday, the down trend in industrial production in the Eurozone has been continuing for the second month. The rate goes down of 0.1% each publication. Germany's GDP for the first quarter rose by 0.6%, which helped the national index to close in positive territory, gaining nearly half a percent.
U.S. data came positive in generally. The consumer confidence index of Michigan University increased by 0.7 p, while the analysts talked about the lack of change in the indicator this month. Probably, the growth of the labour market contributes to the purchasing power of American citizens. The increase in basic inflation amounted to only 0.1% for the month. When compared with the previous year the growth amounted to 1.9%, which is close to the desired 2% level, fed refers it as the reason for tightening monetary policy.
The dismissal of the Director of the FBI was the main limiting factor for growth on the US stock market last week. Donald Trump continues his policy in which he may seem a lot of impulsive and sudden decisions. It worrisome conservative investors, causing a state of uncertainty and high risk. In addition, as a consequence can be the complication of relations of the President and Congress that can be as an obstacle to the implementation of the reforms declared in the election program.
It should be noted that the index of wide market S&P 500 is not going out from a fairly narrow range consolidation 2380-2400 for the third week. It is difficult to say which side will yield, but maybe it will take place this week.
At the end of last week gold rose in price for the symbolic 0.1%. It was the first week of growth after three negative. The reason for this can be considered the weakening of the dollar.
Good news came tonight for buyers of oil. Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to extend the reduction of oil production until March 2018. The decision was made to combine efforts to balance the world oil market and push for such a decision other participants of the Vienna agreement. At the Asian session, the news helped to significantly grow the oil futures up. Pressures remain in place, this is growing number of drilling rigs and production in the United States. The result of a new week might be a rise ahead of OPEC+ meeting on May 25, when a decision of the renewal of the agreement between the cartel members will be taken.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.