On Thursday stock indices demonstrated single dynamics of growth and closed in the "green zone". Dow Jones rose by 0.33% (20728.49), S&P 500 rose 0.29% (2368.06), the Nasdaq added 0.28% (5914.34). European stock markets had not in one direction and closed mixed. The German DAX rose 0.44% (12256.43). Britain's FTSE 100 dipped slightly by 0.06% (7369.52).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 09:00 MSK the Index of housing prices Nationwide in the UK in March
At 09:00 MSK retail sales Germany
At 11:00 MSK the change in the number of unemployed in Germany in March
At 11:30 MSK UK GDP for the 4th quarter
At 12:00 MSK the Eurozone CPI for March
At 12:00 MSK a Speech by ECB member
At 15:30 MSK the canadian GDP for January
At 16:30 MSK FOMC member Bullard speaks
At 16:45 MSK the Index of business activity (PMI) in Chicago in March
At 17:00 MSK FOMC member the Kashkari speaks
At 17:00 MSK the Index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan for March
At 21:00 MSK the Number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes
The main determining factor in the U.S. market is the dynamics of changes in the key rate by Fed. Therefore, the main investors ' attention yesterday was focused on the statements of the Federal Commission of open market members. The majority of Fed officials are in favour of not less than two-fold increase in the refinancing rate before the end of the year. A similar opinion was expressed by the Vice-Chairman of the fed Stanley Fischer. The probability of this event at the June meeting is above 80%.
As additional arguments in favor of monetary policy tightening it can be provided released yesterday data on U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter. The figure rose according to the final data to 2.1% (q/q), while the level of consensus forecast was for 2.0%. This news contributed to the continued growth of the securities of the banking sector. Bank of America added to the capitalization of 1.65%, Citigroup climbed 1.73%.
Statistics from the labor market is ambiguous. On the one hand, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week for 3K to 258К, but the figure was worse than analysts ' expectations 248К.
Due to the combination of all these factors, the U.S. dollar strengthened considerably, it moved away from quarterly lows. This lead to a decline in prices for precious metals. It is possible that after two weeks of growth the current correction in gold will have development.
The oil prices continues to rise. Yesterday the price of WTI was fixed above $ 50 per barrel. The increase continues despite the strengthening currency quotes and other factors of pressure. OPEC+ is adamant in his decision to follow the way of cooperative reduction of production volumes, and extend the agreement until the end of the year, as it was repeatedly said on this week. Growth also contributes to the ambiguous statistics of inventories in the US, which published this week worse than expected. Today it is possible to reduce volatility in anticipation of data on the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.