On the first day of this week, the single dynamics on the US stock market was not observed, the indices closed mixed. The Dow Jones fell by 0.22% (20550.98), S&P 500 lost 0.10% (2341.59), the Nasdaq gained 0.20% (5840.37). European markets closed in negative territory, moving in a unified dynamics. German DAX down 0.57% (11996.07), British FTSE 100 is adjusted for 0.59% (7293.50).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 01:00 MSK a Speech the Deputy head of the RBA Debelle
At 01:30 MSK FOMC member Kaplan speaks
At 09:45 MSK Consumer spending in France in February
At 10:00 MSK a Speech by ECB member, coeure
At 14:45 MSK the Speech of ECB member, coeure
At 17:00 MSK the Index of consumer confidence of the USA for March
At 17:10 MSK the President of the Bank of Canada's Poloz speaks
At 19:45 MSK FOMC member George speaks
At 19:50 MSK speech by the fed Chairman Yellen
At 20:00 MSK FOMC member Kaplan speaks
At 23:30 MSK FOMC member Powell speaks
There is a lot of reasons for the decline on the European markets. In the first place is the external background from overseas with the news about the failure of Donald Trump in Congress with attempts to apply a new health care program. The attack in Central London has fueled voters interest to the candidate in presidents of France from the far-right party "national front" Marine La Pen. In its plans for tighter immigration policies, as well as France's exit from the European Union. In connection with the completion of all formalities by the procedure of Brexit, the pound strengthened significantly in March. On this background, the British stock market is now in retreat from the historic highs reached this month.
After the events in the U.S. Congress at the end of last week the broad market index S&P 500 opened with a strong gap down and only non-stop growth during the day helped to close up most of this fall. Investors see a significant threat to economic growth in the current situation. The failure of the congressional authorization of new health insurance programs despite the fact that the probability of a positive outcome of this event was quite high, suggests that it will be hard for the new administration to accumulate funds for other programs as taxation and infrastructure. Election promises are at risk to remain only words. Today, it is expected the speech of Fed Chairman Yellen's comments on monetary regulation in the current situation.
Looking at the prices for the black gold, it may give the impression that a balance at current levels was achieved. Factors such as the enormous growth in the number of drilling last week, and in contrast to a significant weakening of the dollar had no impact on volatility. Oil successfully lives in a new fairly thin range 46,50- $ 49,50. per barrel for WTI. There is high probability of further lateral movement between these levels in the coming week.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.