On Thursday stock markets of America has not demonstrated obvious dynamics and closed mixed. Dow Jones slightly declined by 0.07% (20934.55), S&P 500 dropped 0.16% (2381.38), the Nasdaq rose 0.01% (5900.76). European markets showed strong growth in the unified dynamics. Germany's DAX rose 0.61% (12083.18), British FTSE 100 gained 0.64% (7415.95).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 00:30 MSK the Index of business activity in industrial sector PMI of New Zealand in February
At 13:00 MSK Eurozone's trade balance for January
At 15:30 MSK Volume of sales in the Canadian manufacturing sector in January
At 16:15 MSK industrial production (m/m) of the United States in February
At 17:00 MSK the Index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan for March
At 17:00 MSK the Index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan for March
At 21:00 MSK the Number of drilling rigs in the USA and Canada from Baker Hughes
Stock markets continue to react to fed decision and commentaries to that. From the one hand, the rate was increased to the range of 0.75-1% as expected,. And the probability of its further growth after the June meeting remains above 80%. From the other hand fed chair Janet Yellen has expressed caution in the comments, saying that an important factor for monetary policy tightening will be to assess the impact of actions of the new administration of the White House to the fiscal incentives, reducing regulation and other changes in the economy. Demonstration of "dovish" tone from the fed led to the fixing of excessive positions in the dollar, which was opened on the expected growth of key rate. After reviewing the portfolios on Wednesday, yesterday, investors were in uncertainty, as it evidenced by near-zero dynamics of the main indices. There is a possibility of sideways movement in the coming week. The resistance level for the index of wide market S&P 500 could be at 2400 p.
Yesterday it was a busy day for investors the Old World. The law of Brexit officially came into force in England after it was signed by Queen Elizabeth II. From this moment Theresa May, the Prime Minister, starts the mechanism of exit from the European Union. But there still lot of who are not satisfied by that. So Scotland is going to start a referendum in order to secede from Britain. Perhaps the volatility in the national currency will be maintained at a height in the near future.
To European investors was added positive thing with the results of the elections in the Netherlands. The winner was "people's party for freedom and democracy" and current Prime Minister Mark Rutte. This outcome reduces trend in populism development in other European countries, where elections are just ahead. This can reassure investors and help continue growth on markets.
The energy market is in consolidation for a while exploring new levels after a precipitous correction last week. The weakening of the dollar helped the customers just partially. Pressure from the shale producers is still great. International Energy Agency in Paris did add goood news with predictions of possible summer shortage of offer in case of observance of the Vienna Treaty OPEC+ in full. Today investors will pay attention to the weekly report from Baker Hughes about the number of rigs in the USA and Canada.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.