On Tuesday, US stocks were down in the single dynamics and closed in the negative zone. Dow Jones down 0.21% (20837.37), S&P 500 lost 0.34% (2365.45), the Nasdaq fell by 0.32% (5856.82). European markets also came to minus in the mild of a single dynamics. Germany's DAX dipped 0.01% (11988.79), British FTSE 100 declined 0.13% (7357.85).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 11:15 MSK the producer price Index (PPI) of Switzerland for February
At 12:30 MSK the Average wage including bonuses
The UK in January
At 12:30 MSK the change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits UK for February
At 15:30 MSK Base the consumer price index (CPI) of the United States in February
At 15:30 MSK Base the retail sales index (m/m) of the United States in February
At 15:30 MSK retail sales (m/m) of the United States in February
At 17:30 MSK crude oil Inventories USA
At 21:00 MSK FOMC Economic projections
At 21:00 MSK the FOMC Statement
At 21:00 MSK interest rate Decision of the Fed
At 21:30 MSK ECB Press conference
Yesterday the European markets was quiet with narrow volatility at low trading volumes. Investors have postponed decision-making for the second half of the week, when there will be more clarity in the assessment of political risks. Today voting in parliamentary elections will start in the Netherlands. There is a possibility that Prime Minister may become the Geert Wilders from "Freedom Party". His victory may raise the chances of populist candidates in the upcoming presidential elections in other European countries, Germany, Italy, and France, where the first round will be held on April 23. The closer this date, the stronger passions run high in the country. Just yesterday one of the candidates for the French presidency from the Republican party, former Prime Minister Francois Fillon was officially accuse in embezzlement of the state budget. Political risks in the Old World have a great impact on the economy, as mentioned by the ECB President Mario Draghi commenting on the reasons for the persistence of low interest rates in the Eurozone despite positive macroeconomic indicators. In anticipation of many of the political events of the Eurobond yield reached highs of a few months.
Today in US it will be the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting and decisions on monetary policy. The rate increase is already incorporated in the value of financial instruments, but comments on further steps the fed will be important for market participants.
After the collapse last week now oil is trying to consolidate at the current levels. Pressures factors continue relevant. This is increasing of offer from shale producers and a possible strengthening of dollar. Negative was added with message about increase of production in Saudi Arabia in February. For sellers also suitable the disunity of OPEC members who does not want to give their market share to American producers, and are not going to renew the Vienna Treaty for another six months, or even to suspend early.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.