Stock indices of America yesterday declined in single dynamics and closed in the red zone. The Dow Jones lost 0.12% (20812.24), S&P 500 dipped 0.26% (2363.64), the Nasdaq fell 0.62 percent (5825.44). European markets showed moderate growth. The German DAX rose 0.10% (11834.41), British FTSE 100 added 0.14% (7263.44).
Today it is expected the number of publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 00:35 MSK Weekly crude oil inventories according to the American petroleum Institute (API)
At 02:50 MSK FOMC member Bullard speaks
At 03:30 MSK the Australian GDP for the 4th quarter
At 11:55 MSK the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) Germany
At 12:00 MSK the change in the number of unemployed in Germany in February
At 12:30 MSK the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) for February
At 16:30 MSK the President of the Bundesbank Weidmann
At 18:00 MSK the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI for Feb
At 18:00 MSK interest rate Decision Canada
At 18:30 MSK crude oil Inventories USA
At 21:00 MSK FOMC member Kaplan speaks
At 22:00 MSK Beige book Fed
Yesterday despite the positive macroeconomic statistics US stock indices showed a decline. Traders closed positions before most anticipated event, which was the speech of President D. Trump in Congress. It took place after the closure of the main trading sessions. But, unfortunately, the President has not justified hopes of investors to get the details of the new further actions in economic politics. The main message of the Trump was the slogan of the need of restarting the American economy and the report that his team is currently working on historical changes in the income tax, which will enable further growth for American companies. In fact, he said a little of new, that can be laid in the basis for the analysis and development of forecasts.
In contrast to the slow motion of the White House, Fed officials made comments about the intentions of increasing the key rate in the near future. John Williams, President of the fed San Francisco, said that in the conditions of almost full employment and the risk of inflation amid expectations of tax cuts, there is no any sense to delay the interest rate hike. Also the President of the NY fed, William Dudley spoke for tightening monetary policy later this month. As a result, futures on the Chicago exchange for increase rates after the meeting on March 14-15 jumped from 31% to 57%. The reaction of the American currency followed also. The dollar strengthened against world currencies, and the trend of enhance remains.
Speech of Donald Trump had an impact on the oil market also. The President said almost nothing about the country's plans for development of its oil production and investment to the industry. Therefore, despite the strengthening of the dollar and the increase in inventories in the United States according to API, black gold returned to the eighteen-month maximum, where it traded for more than a week in anticipation of news that will give impetus to further growth.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov