On Monday the stock markets in America showed a single negative dynamics and closed in the red zone. The Dow Jones lost 0.17% (21235.67), S&P 500 fell by 0.10% (2429.39), the Nasdaq fell by 0.52% (6175.46). European markets also dropped into a unified dynamics. The German DAX closed lower at 0.98% (12690.44), the British FTSE 100 fell by 0.21% (7511.87).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 02:50 MSK the Index BSI business conditions for large manufacturers in Japan for the second quarter
At 04:30 MSK the NAB business confidence Index of Australia in May
At 10:10 MSK the President of the Bundesbank Weidmann
At 11:30 MSK the consumer price Index (CPI) May
At 12:00 MSK the economic sentiment Index ZEW in Germany in June
At 12:00 MSK the speech of the member of the ECB Lautenslager
At 12:00 MSK the economic sentiment Index ZEW
At 14:00 MSK Monthly report of OPEC
At 15:30 MSK Base the producer price index of America in May
At 15:30 MSK the producer price Index (PPI) of America in May
On Monday there were few macroeconomic events and publications of statistics. Stock markets continued to move under the influence of trends last week. The companies of high-tech sector are still under pressure. Investors continue to change the composition of portfolios. In general, the volatility in the stock markets is reducing due to the coming decision on the key rate on Wednesday. Investors now have no doubt that the rate will be raised, and the importance now is in the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve. It is expected the hint for another increase before the end of the year, in December.
There is the time until the end of summer to accept a decision to raise a ceiling of the government debt. Otherwise it will be nothing to pay the costs of the ministries and other public expenditures, the government may stop working. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said about it in his speech on Monday.
In anticipation of monetary policy tightening, the dollar strengthened today in the Asian session, what happens for the third day in a row. It is likely EUR/USD will move toward the support of 1.10 in the coming days. AUD/USD is increasing due to the prerequisites for the growth of the Australian economy, the business confidence index was at a good level. The Canadian dollar rose after the Central Bank hinted that the key rate may rise earlier than expected. At the moment the USD/CAD reached the level of 1,3275 that is much close to the lows for two months. It is likely that the movement will continue to the support area around the level of 1.32.
Passions flare up around Qatar. The national currency of the country fell to levels of the 2009 year crisis. Despite this, the Minister of energy of Qatar, Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada said that the country intends to respect its commitments of the Vienna agreement OPEC+ on the reduction of offer to the market. Because of this today in the Asian session crude oil keeps growth, it was launched a few days ago. Today it is possible that positive factors will be added after the publication of the monthly report of OPEC.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.