Yesterday stock markets of the world had weakly negative dynamics. The major indices closed in the red zone. The Dow Jones dipped slightly to 0.09% (20052.42), S&P 500 lost 0.21% (2292.56), the Nasdaq fell 0.06% (5663.55). European stocks decline more markedly. The German DAX fell by 1.22% (11509.84), British FTSE 100 closed with loss of 0.22% (7172.15).
Today it is expected the number of publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors ' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 00:30 MSK FOMC member Harker speaks.
At 06:30 MSK the monthly interest rate decision Australia.
At 18:00 MSK the Number of open vacancies on the labour market of America from JOLTS for December.
At 18:00 MSK the Index of business activity (PMI) Canada Ivey for January.
At 19:35 MSK the President of the Bundesbank Weidmann speaks.
Yesterday's speech of the ECB President made nervous European investors. Despite the positive tone of the speech about the improvement of the economic situation in the Eurozone and reduce the likelihood of deflation, the market participants decided that Mario Draghi incline to a possible tapering of its program of monetary stimulus and hinted that the continuation may not follow in March. On this background the European indexes showed a decline.
The beginning of the election race in several European countries also promoted to the decline on European markets. Elections carries risks of political uncertainty. In France, Marine Le Pen is fighting for the presidency and threatens to increase taxes for foreigners and the refusal of the Euro. The first voting will be held in spring on April 23. Also this autumn the election of Chancellor of Germany will be held. The race started and Angela Merkel is one of the official candidates.
Over the ocean scandal around the new immigration policy continues to gain momentum. The largest representatives of the IT industry has not remained aloof from the situation. Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter, Ebay began legal proceedings against Trump's decree. Though this does not directly affect the economic situation in the country, but it does not add stability. Stocks achieved local growth targets, and now they may continue to drift sideways. For the index of wide market S&P 500 borders of such consolidation may be at the levels 2275 – 2300.
On this background of political risks and uncertainties protective assets such as gold continues its growth. Since the beginning of the year the price of yellow metal increased by more than $ 100 per ounce and the next target at level of 1250$. per ounce, which can be achieved within 1-2 weeks.
Yesterday and today a slight strengthening of the US currency can have a strong influence on the oil market. The price of hydrocarbons held steady last week, patiently suffering any negativity associated with growth of inventories in the United States and increased drilling activity. The weakness of the US currency gave solidity to oil market, and now dollar shows signs of growth. Against this background, oil prices may begin correction twice as fast, due the events of last week. The weekly report from the EIA can affect the situation, investors will pay attention for it in the near future.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.