Macro economics

Market analysis for August 3, 2017

On Wednesday, the stock indices of America have not shown a single dynamic, and closed in different directions. Dow Jones rose by 0.24% (22016.24), S&P 500 rose 0.05% (2477.57), the Nasdaq dipped by 0.01%(6362.65). The European stock exchanges has demonstrated a single downward trend and closed in negative zone. The German DAX slipped by 0.57% (12181.48), British FTSE 100 fell 0.24% (7406.12).

Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.

At 04:30 MSK trade balance of Australia for June

At 11:00 MSK Monthly report of the ECB

At 11:00 MSK the Index of business activity in the services sector in the Eurozone in July

At 11:30 MSK the Index of business activity in the services sector in the UK in July

At 14:00 MSK the Bank of England Report about inflation

At 14:00 MSK interest rate Decision in the UK in July

At 14:00 MSK the minutes of the meeting of the Committee on monetary policy of great Britain

At 14:30 MSK the President of the Bank of England Carney speaks

At 15:30 MSK the Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits USA

At 17:00 MSK the Volume of industrial orders index for June

At 17:00 MSK the Index of business activity in the non-farm sector from the ISM in July

European stocks declined amid weak earnings reports of metallurgical and financial companies. Profit of Societe Generale has decreased on 28%, to 1.06 billion euros compared to 1.46 billion euros last year. Lufthansa profit increased in the second quarter by 69% up to 740 million euros, compared to 437 million euros previous year, and company sales increased by 14%.

Today it is scheduled the Bank of England meeting on monetary policy. Market participants do not expect a rate hike as a result, but the it is important the rhetoric of the President of Mark Carney, in which it is expected a hint of the timing of monetary policy tightening. The national currency, the pound, is in consolidation now.

Yesterday stock markets of the USA opened mixed due to negative from the labor market. Value of employment indicator from ADP was 178000, it is not significantly, but below analysts ' expectations of 185,000. Tomorrow it will be published the official statistics on employment in non-agricultural sector.

Now lets summarize the preliminary results of the period corporate reports in the USA in the second quarter. According to Bloomberg, profits of 77% companies included in the index of wide market S&P500 exceeds forecasts. Yesterday's report of Apple has helped the company to increase the capitalization by 4.73%.

Thus, despite of the employment decline American market continues to set records. Yesterday during the trading session Dow Jones exceeded the significant level of 22,000 points. One reason for this rapid growth is the weakening of the dollar. At the same time, judging by the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester, the fed is in no rush to raise rates and keeps a smooth approach to the tightening of monetary policy.

Oil slightly adjusted the fall due to a report of EIA about inventories which fell by 1,527 million barrels; this is less than the expected number of 2.957 million barrels, but better than yesterday's report from the API. Oil remains under pressure after OPEC report about increasing of production for 90 thousand barrels a day in July, this happened because of Libya refusal to reduce oil production.

 

Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.

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Interest rates

Country Rate Value
USA Federal Funds 0,25 %
Switzerland 3 Month LIBOR Range -0.75 %
United Kingdom Repo Rate 0,10 %
EU Refinancing Tender 0,00 %
Japan Overnight Call Rate -0,10 %
New Zealand Official Cash Rate 0,25 %
Australia Cash Rate 0,25 %
Canada Overnight Rate Target 0,25 %
All rates
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