Macro economics

Market analysis for August 23, 2017

On Tuesday, the U.S. stock markets showed a strong positive trend and closed in green zone. Dow Jones up 0.90% (21899.89), S&P 500 up 0.99% (2452.51), the Nasdaq jumped 1.36% (6297.48). European markets also grew in a unified dynamics. The German DAX rose 1.35% (12229.34), British FTSE 100 was up 0.86% (7381.74).

Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.

At 10:00 MSK the ECB President Draghi

At 10:30 MSK the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in Germany in August

At 10:30 MSK the Index of business activity in the services sector in Germany in August

At 11:00 MSK the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in the Eurozone in August

At 11:00 MSK Composite purchasing managers ' index (PMI) from Markit Eurozone in August

At 11:00 MSK the Index of business activity in the services sector in the Eurozone in August

At 16:05 MSK FOMC member Kaplan

At 16:45 MSK the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI), U.S. government

At 16:45 MSK the Index of business activity (PMI) in the US services sector in August

At 17:00 MSK new home Sales US Jul

At 17:30 MSK crude oil inventories

At 17:30 MSK the Data on excess inventories of oil in Cushing (Oklahoma)   

Yesterday the European markets started to set mood of rise on the stock markets of the world. After noticeable oversold the previous days it may be expected some correction up, at the same time bad news from the region was not observed. Contrary, the macro statistics of the countries of the Old World came in better than expectations. The German current situation index ZEW rose to 86.7 per, it was better than consensus of 85.5. Europeans today expect the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi, according to which it will be possible to assume the quality of the rhetoric of the regulator at a meeting of representatives of Central Banks in Jackson Hole at the end of the week, and also it may hint at plans to tighten monetary policy.

Positive external background from European markets strengthened the risk appetite of American investors, which gradually returns after drawdowns against the background of geopolitical problems. The fear index VIX fell back below 12 points despite the apparent absence of signals of increasing tension between the US and North Korea. Also yesterday it was a positive data of retail sales, the growth rate in annual terms amounted to 3.2%, it was higher than in the previous period 0.7%.

Tonight data of oil inventories in the United States from the API showed a decrease 3.595 M, which is close to the expected 3.400 M, reaction of the market was weak. After a brief surge in volatility quotes returned to the previous levels achieved on Monday. Also there was not cause strong reaction to the report of the technical Committee on oil OPEC+, according to which the Vienna agreement to reduce the supply  was carried out at 94 % in July, it is just for 4% less than in June. Today it will be published official statistics on inventories in the United States.

 

Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov

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Interest rates

Country Rate Value
USA Federal Funds 0,25 %
Switzerland 3 Month LIBOR Range -0.75 %
United Kingdom Repo Rate 0,10 %
EU Refinancing Tender 0,00 %
Japan Overnight Call Rate -0,10 %
New Zealand Official Cash Rate 0,25 %
Australia Cash Rate 0,25 %
Canada Overnight Rate Target 0,25 %
All rates
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