Yesterday stock indexes of the United States showed a slight positive trend and closed in green zone. The Dow Jones rose 0.19% (20689.24), S&P 500 added 0.06% (2360.16), the Nasdaq moved up 0.07% (5898.61). European markets also moved up into a unified dynamics. Germany's DAX up 0.21% (12282.34), the British FTSE 100 fell 0.54% (7321.82).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 10:55 MSK the Index of business activity in the services sector in Germany in March
At 11:00 MSK Composite purchasing managers ' index (PMI) in the Euro area from Markit for March
At 11:30 MSK the Index of business activity in sector of services of great Britain for March
At 15:15 MSK the unemployment rate in nonagricultural sector from ADP USA for March
At 17:00 MSK the Index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM, USA in March
At 17:30 MSK crude oil Inventories in the United States
At 17:30 MSK the Data on excess reserves of oil in Cushing (Oklahoma)
At 21:00 MSK the publication of the FOMC protocols
Yesterday, the European indices continued to rise. A favorable external background, the rhetoric of monetary authorities and macroeconomic statistics contributed to that. So the volume of retail sales showed an increase of 0.7%, which is higher than the level predicted by analysts. On Tuesday evening, investors ' attention was focused on the second presidential debate in France. Today, the market will evaluate results. Up to this moment, according to the polls the race is headed by Emmanuel Macron, from the party "Forward Movement". With a small gap of only about 1-2% after he Marine Le Pen from the national front is following, it was included strict measures against migrants to she’s program, also a course for the country's exit from the EU. This circumstance is worrisome for investors, and can cause higher volatility in case if Marine Le Pen will be the leader in results of the debate. The first round of elections in France will start on April 23.
Stock markets in America are reducing volatility. Investors are switching to the waiting state in anticipation of important events that could affect trends in the economy for the long period. The publication of the FOMC protocols will be today. It can provide additional information about tightening monetary policy. Also on Friday published data on employment in non-agricultural sectors for March. Today we will get a similar figure from ADP.
Also tomorrow will start the negotiations of the President of Donald Trump and Chinese President XI Jinping. The recent contradiction in the field of trade between the two heads of states make it clear to investors that the negotiations will be difficult and it is difficult to predict result in advance.
According to data from the American Petroleum Institute released tonight, the weekly oil reserves in the USA decreased by 1,834 million barr., it is more than the expected decline of 0.5 million barrels. Despite pressure from the news about a recovery of production in Libya for 0.6 million barrels. a day, the buyers pulled the price up. An additional factor for this behaviour is the positive assessment of the results of the Vienna agreement for reduce the offer and also increasing of the probability of its prolongation till the end of the year.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.