On Friday the stock indices of USA closed with a loss, moving in a unified dynamics. The Dow Jones fell by 0.31% (20663.22), S&P 500 dipped by 0.23% (2362.72), Nasdaq is slightly down by 0.04% (5911.74). In contrast to the US, the stock markets of the old world single dynamics was not observed, and the European indexes closed mixed. Germany's DAX added 0.46% (12312.87), British FTSE 100 down 0.63% (7322.92).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 02:50 MSK the Index of sentiment of large manufacturers of Japan Tankan for the first quarter
At 04:30 MSK retail sales of Australia in February
At 09:30 MSK Speech by ECB member speaks
At 10:55 MSK the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) in Germany for March
At 11:30 MSK the Index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the UK
At 12:00 MSK the unemployment rate in the Eurozone in February
At 17:00 MSK the Index of business activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM for March
At 17:30 MSK FOMC member Dudley speaks
At 22:00 MSK FOMC member Harker speaks
Among the participants of the US market doubts that Donald Trump and formed his administration is capable of further acceleration of economic grow are increasing, and as a consequence of the increase in the key rate. Such opinions are primarily based on the recent failure of passing through Congress a new health care reform instead of a disadvantage for citizens ObamaCare. On this background the dollar exchange rate against the major reserve currencies dipped by almost 1% during the past month. For the reduction of positions in the U.S. currency investors based on statements by the monetary authorities for plans for further policies. At the end of last week the President of the new York Fed, William Dudley said in his speech that the regulator will not rush to raise the key rate. The representative of the FOMC were based on the slowdown in consumer spending that came in below expectations, according to statistics on Friday.
After stopping of upper correction in the dollar a change in the dynamics in the value of precious metals was followed. Gold has shown steady growth in the end of the week. Now the quotes of the yellow metal are on consolidation at reached during the two-week rally levels.
Today investors will watch over speeches from Fed officials, who can report on the dynamics of a rate hike. Now the probability of this event after the June meeting of the regulator for just over 50%, after the September's meeting 75%. Significant impact on the plans of the regulator will be provided by the employment report non-farm payrolls for the month, which will be published at the end of this week.
Last week oil has shown significant growth, stopped above the highs of three weeks. The driver of this movement was the expectation of the investors of the extension of the Viennese agreement to the end of the year. The final decision on this matter will be made at the next OPEC+ meeting on May 25.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.