On Friday, the stock indices of the United States has demonstrated a single negative dynamic and closed with minus after a low volatility trading session. The Dow Jones declined by 0.15% (20547.76), S&P 500 fell by 0.30% (2348.69), the Nasdaq dipped 0.11 percent (5910.52). European markets showed no single dynamics and closed mixed. The German DAX rose 0.18% (12048.57), British FTSE 100 dipped 0.06% (7114.55).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 11:00 MSK the IFO business climate Index in Germany in April
At 11:00 MSK the Assessment of the current situation in Germany in April
At 13:00 MSK the Index of factory orders (CBI) the UK in April
At 15:30 MSK the Volume of wholesale sales in Canada for February
At 18:30 MSK FOMC member the Kashkari speaks
At 22:15 MSK FOMC member the Kashkari speaks
Major news Monday was the victory of Emanuel Macron in the first round of the presidential elections in France. He surpass Marine Le Pen, leader of the party "National Front" with a difference of more than 2% of the votes. Intrigue keeps until the last minute, as both candidates were with the margin of less than 1% in accordance the polls. Investors feared that Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the "Rebellious France" will pass to the second round. Both candidates in their election programs say about the radical measures in the economy and politics including France's withdrawal from the EU and return the national currency, the franc. Makron is planning to continue to implement financial and economic policies of the country which have been defined in recent years. The victory of Makron is the most market-friendly outcome for investors. The result of the first round already takes a large part of the uncertainty and political risks. It can serve as an impulse for growth of the stock markets not only in Europe but also in the New World. But the election is still not completed, although in the second round, the chances of winning the Macron has also increased.
Euro rose to highs for the last six months as the reaction of the market community at the Asian session on Monday morning. EUR/USD opened with a huge gap up and reached a level of 1,092.
Investors begin to shift assets from defensive into profitable instruments. On the news of the success of Macron gold lost over 20 dollars per ounce. It is possible that the correction yellow metal will continue if it will be appeared further positive developments.
Futures on US stock indexes also reacted positively to the change in the policy of France and are steadily growing. At the opening it can be expected a gap up for more than 1%.
Compared to other tools oil is traded sluggishly, although also growing, despite the continued increase in production volumes and growth in the number of active drilling rigs, as it was said in a weekly report from Baker Hughes on Friday. In general, black gold dipped in price by 6.7% during the previous week. This week there is hope for correction up.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.