Macro economics

Market analysis for April 19, 2017

On Tuesday, the stock indices showed a single negative trend and closed in the red zone. The Dow Jones fell by 0.55% (20523.28), S&P 500 lost 0.29% (2342.19), the Nasdaq fell 0.12% (5849.47). European markets also dropped, with more rapid dynamics. The German DAX fell by 0.90% (12000.44), the British FTSE 100 fell down 2.46% (7147.50).

Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.

At 12:00 MSK the consumer price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone in March

At 12:00 MSK Eurozone's trade balance for February

At 17:30 MSK crude oil Inventories USA

At 17:30 MSK the Data on excess reserves of oil in Cushing (Oklahoma)

At 21:00 MSK Beige book Fed

Yesterday Prime Minister Theresa May announced early parliamentary elections this year on 8 June. In the usual mode of election was to be held the year 2020, three years later. This step by the government of the country was undertaken in order to increase the position of the conservative party. May anticipates problems by opposition factions of the Parliament, which may prevent the country's exit from the European Union. Against this background, the national currency rushed up. The GBP/USD pair reached maximum during the six months values. The stop of impulse has occurred at the resistance level 1,2865 that even above the sideways range in which the pair was trading since the beginning of October last year. In turn, the national index FTSE 100 has gone down to almost 2.50 %. Led the fall in commodity and steel companies.

Yesterday there was a reason for the decline of American indexes from the session opening. Data on construction of new homes was lower than expected at the level of 1,215 million, at a time when analysts had expected 1.25 million units growth. Data of industrial production came in line with expectations of 0.5%.

From quarterly reports it is possible to highlight UnitedHealth Group, the largest U.S. health insurer. Capitalization of it increased by 1.04 % after the publication of financial results for the first quarter which is above analysts ' expectations. At the same time, Goldman Sachs falls nearly 5% after reporting low profits per share in the amount of 5.15 USD. Bank of America reported about the progress and supported the banking sector.

The data about oil inventories from the American Petroleum Institute  (API)  was published last night. Data showed another decline in the amount of 0,840 million barrels, which even exceeded the forecasts at the level 0,050 million barrels. Despite this, prices are not demonstrated attempts to growth, and volatility also continues to decline. Probably this phenomenon is due to the expectation of the technical Committee meeting of OPEC+ in Vienna on Friday April 21. Also today, investors will follow the publication of data from the Energy Information Agency  about oil inventories in the United States, which is also projected to decline.

 

Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.

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Interest rates

Country Rate Value
USA Federal Funds 0,25 %
Switzerland 3 Month LIBOR Range -0.75 %
United Kingdom Repo Rate 0,10 %
EU Refinancing Tender 0,00 %
Japan Overnight Call Rate -0,10 %
New Zealand Official Cash Rate 0,25 %
Australia Cash Rate 0,25 %
Canada Overnight Rate Target 0,25 %
All rates
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