At the last day of the working week stock indices closed in the red, showing a single dynamics. The Dow Jones fell by 0.67% (20453.25), S&P 500 fell 0.68% (2328.95), the Nasdaq lost 0.53% (5805.15). European markets also moved down, but with less obvious dynamics. The German DAX fell by 0.38% (12109.00), British FTSE 100 for 0.29% (7327.59).
The most of stock markets of the world are closed today in connection with the celebration of good Friday. Despite of that today it is planned series of publications of macroeconomic data, which may affect decisions of market participants during trading sessions following the holidays.
At 07:30 MSK, industrial production in Japan in February
At 15:30 MSK base the consumer price index of the USA for March
At 15:30 MSK Base index US retail sales for March
At 15:30 MSK retail sales in the USA for March
Last trading days of that week passed on low volumes, and the thinness of the market, that contributed to the decline of major world indexes. Investors cut risks before the long weekend, which is now in most of Catholic countries and it will continue until Tuesday. Nevertheless, the international Forex market will continue to work though in a slightly different mode.
France more and more rocks the boat of uncertainty in the Old World throughout the presidential race, which will give the first results after a week with the vote in the first round. Today it is possible to see the growing popularity of the candidate from the extreme left party "the Unconquered France" Jean-Luc Mélenchon. In the polls he is gaining about 18 %.It is only 6% far from leaders Murin Le Pen and Macron. The last candidate is the most desirable for investors who are cautious, reduce positions at the French shares. The CAC 40 index declined yesterday by 0.59%.
Earnings season yesterday opened in America by the representatives of the financial sector. Morgan Chase has increased its capitalization by 0.3%, Citigroup shares declined 0.74%, despite the fact that both major creditors shown results above expectations. Wells Fargo lost 2.99 % on reporting worse than analysts ' forecasts. It's like suggesting that, on the eve of the Berkshire Hathaway got rid of 7 million shares of that creditor and that has accelerated the fall.
The main forces that influence the global currency and stock markets remain geopolitical news, as well as the statements of the US President about the change of head of the fed and undesirable strengthening of the dollar.
Pre-holiday thin market phenomenon has also affected commodities. Gold stopped the growth, and crude oil futures declined slightly on low volumes, despite reports of decreased inventories in the United States. The reducing of inventories by 76% in tankers in the Persian Gulf also serve as positive factor and also as the rising of demand in China by 15% for March. Geopolitical risks are pushing investors to place funds to the black gold. Despite all these factors, which may contribute to the increase in purchases, oil shows no signs of continued growth. It is likely that in the coming weeks we can expect mild correction after several weeks of growth.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.