Yesterday stock indexes American markets showed a weak negative dinamics and closed in the red zone. The Dow Jones declined by 0.03% (20651,30), S&P 500 slipped 0.14% (2353,78), the Nasdaq lost 0.24% (5866.77). European markets were mixed. The German DAX fell 0.50 percent (12139,35), the British benchmark FTSE 100 grew 0.23 percent (7365,50).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
At 11:30 MSK the Average wage in the UK including bonuses for February
At 11:30 MSK the President of the Bank of England's Carney speaks
At 11:30 MSK the change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits UK for March
At 11:30 MSK the unemployment rate in the UK in February
At 14:00 MSK Monthly report, OPEC
At 17:00 MSK the publication of the report of the Bank of Canada on monetary policy
At 17:00 MSK interest rate Decision Bank of Canada
At 17:00 MSK FOMC member Kaplan speaks
At 17:30 MSK crude oil Inventories
At 18:15 MSK the President of the Bank of Canada's Poloz speaks
At the beginning of yesterday's trading session in Europe, the indexes of the Old World stayed in positive territory due to good statistics for inflation in the UK, as well as the index of economic expectations of investors of Germany, which grew much larger than awaited. Unfortunately, buyers are unable to keep the initiative, and the session closed in the red.
Yesterday's statements of the representatives of the FOMC continue to shake the boat of uncertainty in the monetary policy. Neil Kashkari, the head of the Minneapolis fed, which at the last meeting was the only one to oppose the rate increase, continues to insist on this. In his opinion, there are still problems in the labor market, and inflation is still lower than it should be. The complete opposite of him, the President of the fed San Francisco John Williams. He stated that the fed needs to raise interest rates three or four times this year, and to begin reducing the fed's balance sheet for trillions of dollars by the end of 2017.
The index of wide market S&P 500, though demonstrates the increasing volatility, but is still in range and not much deviates from the reached level during the second week alredy. The main factor now is the development of geopolitical events. Investors also await the start of the corporate reporting period, which begins tomorrow. The first reports that could affect the market will come from the banking sector, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan. The financial sector sagged noticeably last time due to doubts of investors in the ability Donald Trump to execute the promises about the state regulations.
Yesterday, gold increased in price by 1.5% to $1275 per ounce to the level of November last year. The main growth driver has been the escalation of tension caused by the activity of the U.S. Navy around Syria and North Korea. Investors seek to hedge risks by moving into defensive assets.
Oil continued rise. There are a lot of prerequisites for that. One of them is the API report about the reduction of stocks, contrary to expectations of growth. Also, the difficulty of production in Libya. Today the monthly report of OPEC will be published using which will be possible to judge the effectiveness of the Vienna agreement to reduce offer. As it is expected it will help to continue growth.
Sincerely, Global FX chief analyst Sergey Melnikov.