In the last trading day of previous week the stock indices of USA demonstrated confident a single upward momentum. Dow Jones up 0.85% (26616.71), S&P 500 was up 1.18% (2872.87), Nasdaq rose by 1.28% (7505.77). European markets also did not lag behind overseas counterparts and grow in unison. The German DAX rose 0.31% (13340.17), British FTSE 100 rose 0.65% (7665.54).
Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.
- At 10:00 MSK the Index of import prices of Germany
- At 13:45 MSK the speech of the member of the ECB Lautenslager
- At 16:30 MSK Base price index of personal consumption expenditures in the United States
- At 16:30 MSK the cost of individuals in the United States
- At 19:00 MSK Speech of ECB member, Coeure
Now the entire world has witnessed the fastest growth in the world economy since the beginning of the decade. It is associated with a strong rise in corporate profits against the background of a stable macroeconomic data. Capitalization of the companies in the world grew by more than 4 trillion dollars this year. In particular, last week the national stock indexes around the world rose on average by almost 2%. The past five days was full of miscellaneous news, reports and statements.
According to the results of the planned meetings of central banks of Japan and Europe, both regulator left monetary policy unchanged, also nothing new was said in their attached conclusions. The volume of purchase of assets under quantitative easing remained at the same level so the new liquidity will still be supporting equity markets.
At the Davos forum it has been made many loud statements. The most striking influence on the stock markets has had the words of Donald Trump. He changed his attitude to strength of the national currency. Literally from the beginning of his presidential term he was talking about the weak dollar, but last week for the first time he said that he want a strong dollar for America. This news made a sharp burst of volatility in the markets, but the correction in EUR/USD was not able to develop, it is likely that the target of 1.3 will be achieved in the next month.
The corporate reporting season almost brings no any disappointments. More than 90% companies said about the growth of its indicators, like revenue and profit, with positive forecasts for the next quarter. In General, a positive picture has got a small droplet of negative, it's weak data of the first assessment of US GDP for the fourth quarter, which was published on Friday. The indicator was at the level of 2.6% while market participants were expecting 3%.
Amid the euphoria of a rising rally now nobody want to notice a growing risk factor for the stock market. The sharp fall in the value of the U.S. dollar and the large sales of bonds have now been the reason for the rise in US yields with maturities of 10 years to 2.65%. The national stock market continues rising for 15 consecutive months. And the growth is so rapid that during this rally there was no correction of even 5% for more than a year, a this is some kind of record for 90 years. But as soon as the correction will, so soon will receive additional impetus for growth in precious metals. While last week amid the slump in the dollar price of an ounce of gold has been raised to the level of 1360$.
The price of oil Brent for the first time from 2014 rose above 71 USD a barrel, it could not stop such a factor as the growth in US production to 128 million barrels. Now the volume of oil produced in America is at the absolute maximum. It is likely that the black gold will consolidate at current levels before expiry of futures contracts, and since the beginning of February we can expect a slump. According to official data the inventories have been declined for fifteen consecutive weeks. The United States has increased its exports of realizing their current prices, amid the fact that the purchases were at prices below $ 40 per barrel.