Macro economics

Analytics on 19/01/2018

On Thursday, the stock indices of US showed a uniform downward trend and closed in negative zone. The Dow Jones fell by 0.37% (26017.81), S&P 500 dropped 0.16% (2798.03), the Nasdaq dipped 0.03% (7296.05). European exchanges have not shown uniform dynamics, and closed mixed. The German DAX rose 0.74% (13281.43), British FTSE 100 slid 0.32% (7700.96).

Today it is expected a few publications of the macroeconomic data and the speeches of the monetary authorities that could affect investors' decisions during the trading sessions.

  • At 00:30 MSK the Index of business activity in industrial sector PMI of New Zealand
  • At 10:00 MSK the producer price Index (PPI) Germany
  • At 11:15 MSK the producer price Index (PPI) Switzerland
  • At 12:00 MSK Monthly report, the IEA
  • At 12:30 MSK the Basic index of retail sales in the UK
  • At 12:30 MSK retail sales in the UK
  • At 16:30 MSK Volume of sales in the Canadian manufacturing sector
  • At 18:00 MSK the Index of consumer expectations, University of Michigan
  • At 18:00 MSK the Index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan
  • At 21:00 MSK the Number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes
  • At 21:00 MSK FOMC member of Quarles

Strong Euro puts pressure on European exporters and makes impossible to accelerate the upward trend. Despite yesterday's growth, the DAX index is still not able to go out on a high last week, and it comes amid a rally in other global markets. Yesterday the technology, oil and gas sectors made a major contribution to the upward movement. The sales were in the sectors of telecommunications, healthcare and utilities. Among the negative factors today it can be added the strongest hurricane "Frederick" in Germany, which led to cancellation of trains and flights, accidents, destruction of buildings and fallen trees. Yesterday it did not affect the market, but today, when the consequences already possible to assess there is a probability of a negative investor reaction.

The U.S. dollar continues to decline in value against all world currencies. Among other things, there is still have not reached an agreement on further financing of the government. It is likely that the process of discussion on this topic in the U.S. Congress may be delayed until 16 February, creating uncertainty for investors, and pressure on the currency and stock markets. From the macroeconomic data it can be noted, the reduction in the number of houses, construction of which began in December 2017, fell was 8.2 % compared to November. And this is the maximum reduction for the last 2 years. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased $ 220 thousand, which is worse than expected, which was 250 thousand. There is the likelihood continue of a long-awaited correction, which begun yesterday.

According to the US Department of energy commercial oil inventories fell 6861 thousand barrels last week ,it is more than analysts had expected 3150 thousand barrels. Despite this correction in oil is long overdue in view of the obvious overbought of market, so today it is likely to cost reduction the major sorts.

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Interest rates

Country Rate Value
USA Federal Funds 0,25 %
Switzerland 3 Month LIBOR Range -0.75 %
United Kingdom Repo Rate 0,10 %
EU Refinancing Tender 0,00 %
Japan Overnight Call Rate -0,10 %
New Zealand Official Cash Rate 0,25 %
Australia Cash Rate 0,25 %
Canada Overnight Rate Target 0,25 %
All rates
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