Macro economics

Analytics on 15.04.2021. Stocks at fresh all-time highs, dollar steadies

Following mixed trading in Asia, European stocks edged higher on Thursday, hitting fresh all-time highs hit a record high on Thursday amid a rally in oil prices and some positive earnings reports. Still, worries about the pace of COVID-19 vaccination in the continent persist. The yield on the 10-year Treasury continues to retreat and was last seen at three-week lows around 1.615%.

Elsewhere, German health minister said he still expects 20% of the population to be vaccinated by end-April. The country recorded nearly 30K new coronavirus infections on Thursday, the highest daily rise since January 8. Earlier, Chancellor Angela Merkel has urged the parliament to grant the federal government temporary powers to enforce coronavirus lockdowns in areas with high infections. On the data front, France’s March final CPI came in at +1.1%, in line with the preliminary estimate. In Germany, March final CPI arrived at +1.7%, in line with the preliminary result as well.

Against this backdrop, the FTSE 100 in London gains 0.27% to 6,958, Italy’s FTSE MIB adds 0.09% to 24,598, France’s CAC 40 is up by 0.32% to 6,228, while the German DAX 30 up by 0.25% to 15,247. US stock index futures edged higher ahead of the release of weekly jobless claims figures and March retail sales data.

In currencies, the USD index has been on the defensive following the recent break below the key 200-DMA. During the European hours on Thursday, the index was last seen flirting with lows around 91.50, with the next support coming at 91.30. As such, EURUSD is flat just below the 1.2000 figure, a break above which would open the door for further gains in the short term, with the immediate target at the 100-DMA at 1.2050.

In commodities, oil prices retain a slightly bullish bias following a rejection from fresh local highs just below the $67 barrier. The upside momentum has abated since yesterday when Brent gained 5%, however, there is scope for further gains in the short term as corrective attempts attract buyers at this stage. Upbeat EIA weekly report along with upwardly revised demand outlook from the IEA added to the upbeat tone in the market. Now, Brent crude needs to hold above the $66 figure in order to stay afloat and regain positive momentum eventually.

Nathan Lambert, Head of Global FX Analytical Department

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Interest rates

Country Rate Value
USA Federal Funds 0,25 %
Switzerland 3 Month LIBOR Range -0.75 %
United Kingdom Repo Rate 0,10 %
EU Refinancing Tender 0,00 %
Japan Overnight Call Rate -0,10 %
New Zealand Official Cash Rate 0,25 %
Australia Cash Rate 0,25 %
Canada Overnight Rate Target 0,25 %
All rates
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