Macro economics

Market analysis for November 4, 2016

The fall of the major indexes on the world markets continues, though it slowed down a little. Dow Jones declined by -0.16% (17930.67), S & P 500 lost 0.44% (2088.66), The Nasdaq fell by -0.92% (5058.41). European indexes also showing the downward trend. German DAX closed in the red at 0.43% (10325.88), Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.80% (6790.51).

Today we will see the number of important publications of macro indicators.

At 03:30 Moscow time, in Australia was published the value of retail sales in September, it grew by 0.2%, while the expected 0.6%.

At 03:35 MSK, the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Poloz took place.

At 15:30 Moscow time, in the US will be published the data on changes in the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls (NFP) in October, is expected to increase to 175K.

Also, 15:30 MSK, in the US will be published unemployment rate in October, it is expected to decline to 4.9%.

At 15:30 Moscow time, in Canada will be published a change in employment in October, it is expected to decline to 10,0K.

At 17:00 MSK, will be released PMI (PMI) for October from Ivey.

At 18:00 MSK, in the US is scheduled the statement of FOMC member Kaplan.

At 20:00 MSK, we will know the change in the number of drilling rigs from Baker Hughes, the previous value was 441.

At 20:30 MSK, in the US scheduled the speech of FOMC member Kashgarli.

At 23:00 MSK, FOMC Member Fisher will speak.

Good news came from UK. Britain's High Court has made a decision, under which the country cannot initiate the process of withdrawal from the European Union without the approval of the UK Parliament. This decision is clearly an obstacle and can slow down the whole process, which the government wanted to start as early as next spring. The British currency was revived by such news and began to strengthen.  GBP / USD pair reached a level of 1.25 during the day.

Yesterday, The US index of wide market S&P 500 continued to fall without stopping. The reason for reduction is the continuous uncertainty in the elections, which occurred in the last few weeks before the vote. FBI raises new facts against Hillary Clinton, and going to open the new investigation, which reduces her ratings and the probability of winning in the election. In terms of stock markets, Clinton presidential program is more preferable, because it does not bear a great change in the course of the previous President, Barack Obama. Reducing of likelihood of Clinton's victory led investors to cut positions in risky assets and move to more safe assets such as gold and government bonds. Another factor of yesterday's reduction, were data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. The actual value of the indicator turned out to be on 8000 less than expected. As a result, S & P 500 dropped to the level of 2085.

Two days ago, oil broke through the annual upward trend and reached strong support level of $44.50 per barrel, for Light brand. The lack of confirmation of possibility of reaching an agreement between the OPEC countries, has led the investors to get rid of their oil futures contracts.

Today, will be published the data on changes in the number employed in non-agricultural sector in October (NFP), which is one of the most important indicators. The market may response to it with a serious rise and increase of volatility. Judging by the fact that with the last plunge on stock markets, commodities reached their first strong support, it is likely that markets can stay there or even move to a correction, the reason for which can serve today's employment data.

 

Sincerely, Global FX analysts team.

 

April

Interest rates

Country Rate Value
USA Federal Funds 2,50 %
Switzerland 3 Month LIBOR Range -0,73 %
United Kingdom Repo Rate 0,75 %
EU Refinancing Tender 0,00 %
Japan Overnight Call Rate -0,10 %
New Zealand Official Cash Rate 1,5 %
Australia Cash Rate 1 %
Canada Overnight Rate Target 1,75 %
All rates

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